Featured, Football, Premier League

Man City, Liverpool or Arsenal? Premier League title chances assessed after shock weekend

Despite some shuffling at the top of the Premier League, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City are still separated by just two points.

After defeating Luton 5-1 on Saturday, reigning champions Manchester City took back the top spot in the Premier League, with Liverpool losing 1-0 at Crystal Palace and Arsenal losing 2-0 at Aston Villa.

Thus, momentum is currently in favour of Pep Guardiola’s titans. But with just six games left, a mishap like this weekend might change the tide once more.

In the meantime, the statistics show that it is still tied for the closest championship race ever. After 32 games, first and third have only split two points or less on three other occasions.

Since Spurs and Aston Villa fell out of the top three, there has been a fierce competition among the top three since Christmas. To observe the changes made to the table during the campaign, simply press the play button on the interactive table below.

Arsenal presently leads the race for goal difference by a significant margin with +49, followed by Manchester City (+44) and Liverpool (+41), should the points come down to a tie.

With an average return of 2.2 points per game over their last five league games, City is now the most successful challenger, ahead of Liverpool (1.6) and Arsenal (2.0).

And how do the teams’ chances of winning the titles fare?


Positives for their title charge

Midway through November, City drew three straight games before falling to Aston Villa 1-0. Guardiola’s team, though, hasn’t lost since December 6 and is hoping to finish the season in typical, dominant fashion.

Guardiola’s team is pursuing an unprecedented fourth consecutive title win, and they know exactly what it takes to cross the finish line.

Their depth is unparalleled, enabling them to continue playing even when they were without players of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland’s ability early in the season.

Negatives for their title charge

The primary one is that no team has ever won four league titles in a row. Can they stay at this level for a fourth straight season, given the tough competition they face from Arsenal and Liverpool and the need to balance three competitions? It has never been done before for a reason.

The other bright spot for their opponents is that they appear to be more susceptible defensively than in past campaigns. With 32 goals conceded in 32 games, they are nearly at their best rate of conceding under Guardiola, matching their third-place finish from the 2016–17 season.


Positives for their title charge

After losing three of their previous five games over the Christmas break, Arsenal recovered to nearly perfect form with 10 victories, one tie, and an overall record of 38-4 until the unexpected loss to Unai Emery’s team.

Furthermore, the Gunners have the finest defence this season, and they typically win titles. Their ability to stifle opportunities is shown in their unparalleled anticipated goals against total.

Negatives for their title charge

The players of Arsenal are not as experienced as their competitors in winning trophies. And the surrender from the previous season looms large over them. They have a lot to prove now since they gave up such a big lead over City when it seemed like they might never have another chance: they need to beat City between now and May 19.

The graph below illustrates how opportunities are becoming less frequent near the top of the pitch, and how Arteta’s team is also giving up more obvious opportunities at the other end.


Positives for their title charge

Liverpool has been the most reliable team in terms of form, never losing more than two straight Premier League games. Out of the three championship contenders, Liverpool is currently in the weakest condition. Klopp’s team needs three points from their next trip to Fulham on April 21.

Negatives for their title charge

Although they have only given up 31 goals, which is second fewest only to Arsenal, can they continue at this pace? Their opponents have far more opportunities than both City and Arsenal, according to the underlying statistics, which show that they have handed up 38.50 expected goals against (xGa) thus far, compared to 22.56 for Arsenal and 30.82 for City.

Predicted table


The Opta supercomputer now projects Manchester City to win the championship with a 68.1% chance. Together, Arsenal (20.1%) and Liverpool (11.8%) still provide a 32% chance of keeping City from winning a record-breaking fourth championship.



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